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Theses

Caractérisation statistique des événements de submersion sur le Côte Basque

Abstract : Because of global warming and demographic growth, storms and flooding events affecting coastlines tend to have more severe consequences than before. The aim of this work was to investigate whether oceanic conditions during storms could be used to predict the occurrence of damages on the coasts. The study was restricted to the French Basque country during 1949-2015 time period.The first contribution of thiswork was to identify the most relevant oceanic variables to characterize the intensity of a storm event. An inventory of the available data sources and a reanalysis work allowed us to build complete and reliable wave and water level time series for the 1949-2015 period. In a second phase, an historical research was carried out in order to identify all storm and flooding events which caused damages to the French Basque coast during the 1949-2015 period. The research focused on two locations : the "Grande Plage" of Biarritz and the Saint-Jean-de-Luz Artha dike. This led to a list of 30 events additionally described by a damage index and a flooding index.The final objective was to link wave and water level time series with historical damage data and resulted in the creation of a damage function predicting if a flooding event will cause damages or not. This damage function allowed us to emphasize the exceptional character of the 2013-2014 winter, among other things, by computing return periods.
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Florian Arnoux. Caractérisation statistique des événements de submersion sur le Côte Basque. Variables complexes [math.CV]. Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, 2019. Français. ⟨NNT : 2019PAUU3032⟩. ⟨tel-02523790⟩

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