Spreading of infections on random graphs: A percolation-type model for COVID-19

Fabrizio Croccolo (1) , H. Eduardo Roman (2)

1 LFCR - Laboratoire des Fluides Complexes et leurs Réservoirs
2 Service de Gynécologie et Obstétrique [CHU Rouen]

We introduce an epidemic spreading model on a network using concepts from percolation theory. The model is motivated by discussing the standard SIR model, with extensions to describe effects of lockdowns within a population. The underlying ideas and behaviour of the lattice model, implemented using the same lockdown scheme as for the SIR scheme, are discussed in detail and illustrated with extensive simulations. A comparison between both models is presented for the case of COVID-19 data from the USA. Both fits to the empirical data are very good, but some differences emerge between the two approaches which indicate the usefulness of having an alternative approach to the widespread SIR model.

Domains: Statistics [stat]

Fabrizio Croccolo, H. Eduardo Roman. Spreading of infections on random graphs: A percolation-type model for COVID-19. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020, pp.110077. ⟨10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110077⟩. ⟨hal-02894471⟩