Exchange rate fluctuations and extra-eurozone exports: A comparison of Germany and France

Serge Rey (1)

1 CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques

To study the extra-eurozone exports of goods by France and Germany, this study applies cointegration methods to estimate long-run equations for the period 1971–2010 (quarterly data), as well as for a shorter period known as the “euro period.” Various measures of the real exchange rate of the euro indicate that the price elasticities of exports are higher for France (-0.6 to -0.9) than for Germany (-0.2 to -0.3). Conversely, the income elasticities of German exports are double those of France, reaching nearly 2 for 1 in the French case. These results support French fears about the value of the euro–dollar exchange rate, but they also reveal a delay by France in its adaptation to the new global environment, following the opening of the central and eastern European economies and the arrival of large emerging countries in the worldwide economy.

Mots clés: Exports; Euro; Germany; France; Unit roots; Breaks; Cointegration

Domaines: Economies et finances

Serge Rey. Exchange rate fluctuations and extra-eurozone exports: A comparison of Germany and France. Economics Bulletin, 2011, 31 (2), pp.1131-1150. ⟨hal-01885303⟩