Relationship between Remittances and Macroeconomic Variables in Times of Political and Social Upheaval: Evidence from Tunisia's Arab Spring

Jamal Bouoiyour (1) , Refk Selmi (1) , Amal Miftah (1)

1 CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques

If Tunisia was hailed as a success story with its high rankings on economic, educational, and other indicators compared to other Arab countries, the 2011 popular uprisings demonstrate the need for political reforms but also major economic reforms. The Arab spring highlights the fragility of its main economic pillars including the tourism and the foreign direct investment. In such turbulent times, the paper examines the economic impact of migrant' remittances, expected to have a countercyclical behavior. Our results reveal that prior to the Arab Spring, the impacts of remittances on growth and consumption seem negative and positive respectively, while they varyingly influence local investment. These three relationships held in the short-run. By considering the period surrounding the 2011 uprisings, the investment effect of remittances becomes negative and weak in the short-and medium-run, whereas positive and strong remittances' impacts on growth and consumption are found in the long term.

Mots clés: Remittances; economic growth; domestic investment; consumption; Tunisia; Arab Spring

Domaines: Variables complexes [math.CV]

Jamal Bouoiyour, Refk Selmi, Amal Miftah. Relationship between Remittances and Macroeconomic Variables in Times of Political and Social Upheaval: Evidence from Tunisia's Arab Spring . ERF 23rd Annual Conference , Mar 2017, Amman, Jordan. ⟨hal-01569944⟩